Economic Framework

Grading ROI Logic

Don't guess—calculate. We've formalized the mathematical framework used by high-volume dealers to determine which cards are worth the grading fee.

The Core Formula

                    EV = ( (V10 * P10) + (V9 * P9) ) - (CR + CG)
                

EV: Expected Value

V₁₀: Market Value at Grade 10

P₁₀: Probability of achieving Grade 10

V₉: Market Value at Grade 9

P₉: Probability of achieving Grade 9

C_R: Raw Purchase Cost

C_G: Total Grading & Logistics Cost

1. The 10-or-Bust Threshold

For most modern cards, the ROI is only positive if the card achieves a 10. We call this the **Binary Outcome Risk**. If V₉ is less than C_R + C_G, the submission relies entirely on P₁₀.

Dealer's Rule: Never submit if V₉ doesn't cover at least 80% of your total cost, unless P₁₀ is calculated at >95% via AI analysis.

2. Factoring Opportunity Cost

Professional grading takes time (T). Your capital is locked during this period. To be truly profitable, the Expected Value (EV) must exceed a 10% annualized return compared to alternative investments.

The Velocity Goal: High-volume operations prioritize 'Quick Turn-around' service levels even at higher C_G to increase capital velocity.

Put the Logic to Work

Our AI models use this exact mathematical framework to provide "Submit" or "Pass" recommendations for every card you analyze.

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