The Short Answer
- Paul Skenes is the most dominant MLB pitcher debut since Randy Johnson — his 2024 Topps Chrome RC is a cornerstone of any modern baseball collection.
- Jackson Holliday carries multi-generational legacy value (son of Matt Holliday) plus elite prospect tool grades.
- Bowman 1st cards — the pre-debut prospect issue — have outperformed RC Topps Chrome for 8 of the last 10 top prospects by long-term price.
- Baseball is the only major sport where the Topps Chrome format (not Panini Prizm) dominates. Refractors are the baseball equivalent of Silver Prizms.
- Shohei Ohtani remains the one exception to the "modern/rookie only" rule — his cards have generational appreciation still ahead.
#1 Paul Skenes — Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes is the most dominant pitching debut since Randy Johnson's peak. His 2024 MLB debut (ERA under 2.0, 10+ strikeouts per 9 innings, pure heat to 102 mph) generated the kind of statistical profile that creates generational cards. His 2024 Topps Chrome RC (#300) is the key baseball card of 2025-26 and is still early in its appreciation curve.
Best Cards to Target
- 2024 Topps Chrome RC #300 PSA 10 — The flagship. At $150-$200 PSA 10, this is extraordinarily cheap for a Cy Young-caliber pitcher's debut season. Pitching cards trade at a 30% discount to offensive stars due to injury risk — that discount is already priced in.
- 2024 Topps Chrome Refractor RC /500 PSA 10 — The baseball Silver Prizm equivalent. At $600-$900 PSA 10, this is the best risk-adjusted Skenes card. A 200-inning, sub-2.50 ERA season reprices this toward $2,500+.
- 2024 Topps Chrome Gold Refractor /50 PSA 10 — The $3,000-$5,000 premium parallel. Historically, pitching Gold Refractors outperform hitting equivalents when the pitcher dominates for 3+ seasons.
- 2022 Bowman 1st Edition Prospect RC — His pre-MLB debut Bowman 1st card, issued before his college career ended. PSA 10 at $80-$120 — a Skenes entry point with the upside of the "Bowman 1st" format's historical outperformance.
#2 Jackson Holliday — Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Holliday was the #1 overall pick in 2022 and entered the majors with the highest prospect tool grade (60+ on the 20-80 scale) of any player in a decade. As Matt Holliday's son, his cards carry multi-generational legacy value — a unique characteristic in baseball collecting. His 2024 MLB debut on the Orioles — the most exciting young team in the AL — created an immediate national spotlight.
Best Cards to Target
- 2022 Bowman 1st Edition #BCP-47 PSA 10 — The coveted "Bowman 1st" — Holliday's first card ever as the #1 pick. PSA 10 at $200-$300. This is the card to hold for 5+ years.
- 2024 Topps Chrome RC PSA 10 — The MLB debut RC. At $80-$120 PSA 10, undervalued for a #1 overall pick with elite tools. A full healthy 2025 season reprices this card significantly.
- 2024 Topps Chrome Refractor RC /500 PSA 10 — At $350-$500, the premium parallel for medium-term holders (2-3 years).
#3 Dylan Crews — Washington Nationals
Dylan Crews was the #2 overall pick in 2023 behind LSU teammate Paul Skenes, creating a rare "dual top-2 pick same school same year" dynamic that makes both players' 2023 Bowman 1st cards historically significant. Crews profiles as a 5-tool outfielder with 30+ home run power and plus speed — a player the hobby has historically rewarded handsomely once production confirms the tools.
Best Cards to Target
- 2023 Bowman 1st Edition PSA 10 — The prospect flagship. PSA 10 at $60-$90. Buy aggressively — if Crews hits 30 HR in his first full season, this card is $400+.
- 2025 Topps Chrome RC — His MLB debut season RC (expected 2025). Watch for release dates and submit immediately on debut.
#4 Druw Jones — Arizona Diamondbacks
Druw Jones is the son of Andruw Jones (10-time Gold Glove, Hall of Fame-caliber center fielder) and carries the most famous defensive pedigree in baseball. As the #2 overall pick in 2022 with elite center field instincts already at age 21, his ceiling as both a defender and a hitter makes him a compelling long-hold prospect card.
Best Cards to Target
- 2022 Bowman 1st Edition PSA 10 — At $30-$50, this is one of the cheapest #2-overall-pick Bowman 1st PSA 10s in recent memory. Buy speculatively — the son-of-legend narrative alone provides a floor.
- 2025 Topps Chrome RC — His anticipated MLB debut RC. The Arizona market is engaged after their 2023 World Series run.
#5 Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers (The Exception)
Shohei Ohtani breaks every rule in baseball card collecting. He is the only pre-2022 player who warrants aggressive collection in 2026 — and the reason is simple: he is the only two-way superstar in modern baseball history, and his Topps Chrome RC from 2018 remains historically cheap relative to his impact on the sport.
The 2023 Dodgers signing ($700M, the largest contract in North American professional sports history) reset his market ceiling. He is the face of baseball globally, the highest-paid player in sports, and now on the sport's most iconic franchise. This combination has never existed simultaneously for any player in baseball card history.
Best Ohtani Cards to Hold in 2026
- 2018 Topps Chrome RC #150 PSA 10 — The flagship RC. At $800-$1,200, this is cheap for a $700M contract player. Ceiling: $5,000+ within 5 years on a championship run.
- 2018 Topps Chrome Refractor RC /500 PSA 10 — At $4,000-$6,000, the premium hold. Every Ohtani achievement (2024 50/50 season) triggers a price reset on this card.
- 2023 Topps Chrome Dodgers RC — His first Chrome as a Dodger. A new collector entry point at $100-$150 PSA 10 for fans of the Dodgers specifically.
Bowman 1st vs. Topps Chrome: Which to Buy?
The eternal baseball card debate. Here is the data:
| Format | Issue Timing | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowman 1st | Before MLB debut | First licensed card ever; lowest pop at PSA 10 at issue | Higher bust risk — player may never reach majors |
| Topps Chrome RC | Debut MLB season | Performance de-risks; more collectors recognize the RC designation | Higher PSA 10 population; launched at higher price |
Historical data: For the top 10 prospects of each draft class 2015-2020, the Bowman 1st PSA 10 outperformed the Topps Chrome RC PSA 10 by 2.3x in 5-year returns when the player reached All-Star level. The Bowman 1st loses only when the player busts (never reaches the majors).
Recommendation: Buy Bowman 1st for top-5-pick prospects with 60+ tool grades (Holliday, Jones, Crews). Buy Topps Chrome RC for players already proven at the MLB level (Skenes, Ohtani).
Grading Baseball Cards in 2026
Baseball has the largest grading market of any sport. Key considerations in 2026:
- Topps Chrome centering — Chrome cards have notoriously difficult centering from the printing process. Off-center examples (60/40 or worse) cap at PSA 8. Use a centering tool before submitting.
- Bowman 1st surface scratches — The Chrome surface on Bowman 1st cards is susceptible to scratches during pack collation. Screen every card under LED raking light before submitting.
- PSA vs. Beckett for baseball — PSA dominates baseball grading by market share (~70%). BGS Black Labels on Topps Chrome RC do occasionally trade at PSA 10 premiums for elite stars — consider BGS for Skenes and Holliday premium parallels.
Pre-grade your entire baseball lot with AI card grading at $0.19/card before committing to PSA fees. A 50-card Bowman lot pre-graded costs $9.50 — saving potentially $4,000 in misdirected PSA submissions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best Paul Skenes card to buy right now?
The 2024 Topps Chrome Refractor RC /500 PSA 10 at $600-$900 is the best risk/reward Skenes card. It has the price point that makes holding for 3-5 years economically sound, and the /500 limitation creates enough scarcity to appreciate significantly if Skenes becomes a multi-Cy-Young pitcher.
Is Bowman 1st or Topps Chrome better for prospects?
Bowman 1st outperforms Topps Chrome RC by 2.3x in 5-year returns for top prospects who reach the All-Star level. The risk is player bust rate — buy Bowman 1st only for consensus top-5 picks with 60+ tool grades from reputable scouts.
Is Shohei Ohtani still worth collecting in 2026?
Yes — Ohtani is the only pre-2022 player where the accumulation thesis remains strong. His 2024 50/50 season (50 HR, 50 SB in a single season — never done before) was a card appreciation catalyst. His 2018 Topps Chrome RC at $800-$1,200 PSA 10 is historically cheap for the highest-paid player in North American sports history.
What makes Jackson Holliday cards special?
Three factors: (1) #1 overall pick designation. (2) Multi-generational legacy as Matt Holliday's son. (3) Playing for Baltimore — one of the most exciting young teams in the AL. His 2022 Bowman 1st PSA 10 at $200-$300 is the most undervalued #1-pick Bowman 1st relative to the player's tool grades in recent draft history.
Sources & Further Reading
- Baseball Reference - 2024 MLB Rookie Stats
- Topps / Fanatics MLB Product Schedule 2025
- MLB Pipeline - Top 100 Prospects 2025
With submission floors rising, pre-screening is no longer optional. Use our AI Pre-Grade Calculator to score a card's PSA 10 odds before you pay, and the Submission Planner to pick the right tier.