Upper Deck Young Guns Grading Guide: PSA 10 Hit Rates, Centering Problems, and Parallels Worth Grading

What Are Upper Deck Young Guns?

Upper Deck Young Guns is the most important rookie card subset in hockey. It has been part of Upper Deck's flagship NHL set since the 1990-91 season, and it is the card that defines a player's rookie card portfolio. Every NHL rookie who enters the league has a Young Guns card, and for the league's biggest stars — Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid, Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini — the Young Guns is the foundational piece that collectors build around.

Young Guns cards appear in Upper Deck Series 1 and Series 2 each year, with approximately 50 rookies per series. They are short-printed at about 1:6 packs, which means you need to open roughly six packs to pull one Young Guns card — and that card could be any of the 50 rookies in the series. For star rookies like Celebrini or Bedard, the odds of pulling their specific Young Guns are approximately 1:300 packs, which creates real scarcity.

The design is simple but iconic: the player photo, a bold Young Guns logo, and the team color scheme. The cards are printed on standard glossy stock, which makes them thinner and more condition-sensitive than many collectors realize. That condition sensitivity is what makes PSA 10 Young Guns so valuable — the cards are difficult to grade, and the supply of perfect copies is limited.

For collectors, the Young Guns card is the starting point. It is the most liquid, most recognized, and most traded hockey rookie card. If you are building a collection around a specific player, the Young Guns is the first card you buy. If you are investing in hockey cards, the Young Guns is the card you grade. And if you are opening packs, the Young Guns is the card you hope to pull.

Why Young Guns Are Hard to Grade

Young Guns cards are notoriously difficult to grade at PSA 10. There are three main reasons:

1. Centering

Upper Deck has historically struggled with centering on Young Guns, especially in Series 1 where the flagship set is printed in massive volume. A Young Guns card that looks centered under normal lighting may fail the 55/45 front centering standard when measured precisely. The Young Guns logo at the bottom of the card can make the bottom border appear larger than it is, creating an optical illusion that leads collectors to overestimate the centering quality.

2. Edge Wear

The thin stock on Young Guns makes them more prone to edge wear than thicker premium cards. Edge whitening is particularly visible on cards with dark borders, which describes many Young Guns designs. Even pack-fresh cards can have edge wear from the packaging process itself — the cards rub against each other in the pack, and the thin stock shows every nick.

3. Surface Issues

The glossy finish on Young Guns is susceptible to print lines, scratches, and dimples. Print lines are particularly common on high-volume print runs, and they can be difficult to see under normal lighting. A card that looks clean to the naked eye may have micro-scratches or print defects that are visible under 10x magnification — and PSA graders use magnification.

The combination of these three issues means that the PSA 10 hit rate for Young Guns is lower than for many other card types. A collector who submits 10 pack-fresh Young Guns might get 2-4 PSA 10s, compared to 5-7 for a comparable basketball or football product. This lower hit rate is exactly what creates the PSA 10 premium — scarcity drives value.

PSA 10 Hit Rates by Set Year

PSA 10 hit rates for Young Guns vary significantly by set year. Older sets are harder to grade because the cards were not preserved as carefully and because print quality in the mid-2000s was more variable. Here are estimated PSA 10 hit rates for key Young Guns sets:

Set Year	Key Rookies	Est. PSA 10 Hit Rate	Difficulty	Why
2005-06	Crosby, Ovechkin	~15%	Very Hard	Heavy handling, poor storage, variable print quality
2015-16	McDavid, Eichel	~25%	Hard	Better preservation, but centering issues persist
2016-17	Matthews, Laine	~28%	Hard	Similar to 2015-16, moderate centering variance
2019-20	Makar, Hughes	~35%	Moderate	Improved print quality, better centering
2023-24	Bedard, Fantilli	~38%	Moderate	Modern print quality, but still centering variance
2024-25	Celebrini, Michkov	~40%	Moderate	Best modern print quality, but pack rub still an issue

Hit rates are estimates based on PSA population data and collector submission reports. Actual rates vary by card, player, and condition of the specific copy submitted.

The 2005-06 Crosby and Ovechkin Young Guns are particularly difficult in PSA 10 because they were heavily handled at the time of release and many were stored in poor conditions. The cards were not seen as long-term investments in 2005 — they were just hockey cards. As a result, finding a pack-fresh Crosby or Ovechkin Young Guns that has survived 20+ years in gem-mint condition is extraordinarily rare, which is why a PSA 10 Crosby Young Guns can sell for $30,000-$80,000.

The Centering Problem: A Deep Dive

Centering is the single biggest reason Young Guns cards miss PSA 10. Understanding the centering standard and how to measure it is the most important skill for any hockey card collector who grades.

PSA requires 55/45 front centering for a PSA 10. This means the borders on the front of the card must be within a 55/45 ratio — the larger border cannot be more than 55% of the total border measurement. On the back, the standard is more lenient at 75/25.

For Young Guns specifically, centering is challenging for several reasons:

• High-volume printing: Series 1 is printed in massive quantities, and quality control on centering is less consistent than on low-numbered premium products.
• The Young Guns logo: The logo at the bottom of the card can make the bottom border appear larger than it is, creating an optical illusion that leads collectors to overestimate centering quality.
• Sheet cutting: Cards are cut from large sheets, and the cutting process can shift slightly, resulting in cards that are off-center in one direction. This is a manufacturing issue, not a handling issue — even pack-fresh cards can be poorly centered.
• Set-specific patterns: Some set years have known centering biases. For example, 2015-16 Upper Deck Series 1 is known for left-shifted centering on many Young Guns cards, including the McDavid #201.

To measure centering accurately, use a centering tool or app. Measure the left and right borders at the top, middle, and bottom of the card. Measure the top and bottom borders at the left, center, and right. Calculate the ratios. If any measurement exceeds 55/45 on the front, the card will not grade PSA 10 — no matter how clean the corners, edges, and surface are.

AI pre-grading tools can measure centering automatically from a photo of the card. This is the single most valuable use of AI pre-grading for Young Guns — it catches centering issues that the naked eye misses, saving you the cost of submitting a card that will grade PSA 9 at best.

Common Condition Issues by Set

Different Young Guns set years have different condition issues that collectors should be aware of before submitting:

Set Year	Known Issues	Pre-Screening Focus
2005-06	Corner dings from handling, edge wear, surface scratches from poor storage	Corners first, then surface. Centering is secondary — most copies are already too worn for PSA 10.
2015-16	Left-shifted centering (McDavid #201 especially), edge whitening on dark borders	Centering is the gatekeeper. Measure left/right ratio carefully. Then check edges.
2019-20	Moderate centering variance, occasional print lines on glossy surface	Check for print lines under angled light. Centering is generally better.
2023-24	Pack rub on edges, occasional surface dimples from manufacturing	Edges first (pack rub), then surface dimples. Centering is usually acceptable.
2024-25	Best modern print quality, but pack rub still present. Some centering variance on Series 2.	Quick centering check, then edges. Most issues are edge-related from packaging.

Young Guns Parallels: Which to Grade

Young Guns cards have several parallels, each with different scarcity and value. Here is the complete guide to which parallels are worth grading:

Parallel	Print Run	Grade?	Recommended Grader	Notes
Base Young Guns	~1:6 packs	Yes — if PSA 10 likely	PSA	The standard rookie card. Only grade if pre-screening shows PSA 10 potential.
Canvas	Limited	Yes	PSA	Matte-finish alternate art. Fan favorite. Strong PSA 10 premiums.
Exclusives /100	100 copies	Always	PSA	Numbered to 100. Significant premium. Always grade.
High Gloss /10	10 copies	Always	PSA Express	True short print. Major premium. Use faster tier for quicker resale.
Clear Cut / Printing Plates	1/1	Always	PSA Express	One-of-one. Ultimate rarity. Always grade with PSA.
Outburst Gold	1/1	Always	PSA Walk-Through	New parallel (2023-24+). Celebrini 1/1 sold for $1.28M. Use premium tier.
Young Guns Autographs	Very Limited	Always	PSA	Signed versions. Far scarcer than base. Separate, higher market.

The rule is simple: if it is numbered, grade it. Numbered parallels have built-in scarcity that creates value even at PSA 9. For base Young Guns, only grade if pre-screening suggests PSA 10 is likely — the 6-15x premium for PSA 10 over PSA 9 is what makes the submission worthwhile.

PSA vs BGS vs CGC vs SGC vs KSA for Hockey

Five grading companies are relevant to hockey cards. Here is how they compare:

Grader	Hockey Strength	Resale Premium	Best For
PSA	Dominant — US and international	Highest (baseline)	All Young Guns, all eras
BGS	Canadian heritage, historical strength	80-95% of PSA	Modern high-end, Black Label chases
CGC	Strictest on centering, budget option	70-90% of PSA	Mid-value modern, TCG crossover
SGC	Preferred for vintage, fair grading	75-90% of PSA	Vintage OPC, pre-1980
KSA	Canadian-domestic, limited international	50-70% of PSA	Canadian market only, personal collection

For hockey cards, PSA is the default choice. It commands the highest resale premium, has the most recognized brand, and is the grader that collectors and investors trust for Young Guns. BGS has a strong Canadian heritage and is popular for its subgrades, but it has lost market share to PSA in recent years. CGC is the strictest on centering, which can be a disadvantage for Young Guns (where centering is already the main issue) but makes it a good budget option for collectors who want tight standards. SGC is preferred for vintage hockey cards, particularly pre-1980 OPC issues. KSA is a Canadian-only grader with limited international resale value — use it only for personal collection cards you do not plan to sell internationally.

PSA 10 Values for Key Young Guns

Here is the current market value for PSA 10 Young Guns of the most important modern NHL rookies:

Player	Set	PSA 10 Range	PSA 9 Range	10/9 Premium
Sidney Crosby	2005-06 UD YG #201	$30,000-$80,000	$3,000-$8,000	~10x
Alex Ovechkin	2005-06 UD YG #443	$15,000-$40,000	$1,500-$4,000	~10x
Connor McDavid	2015-16 UD YG #201	$5,000-$15,000	$500-$1,500	~10x
Auston Matthews	2016-17 UD YG #201	$1,500-$5,000	$200-$600	~8x
Cale Makar	2019-20 UD YG #201	$800-$2,500	$150-$400	~6x
Connor Bedard	2023-24 UD YG	$600-$3,500	$120-$500	~6x
Macklin Celebrini	2024-25 UD YG	$3,500+	$500-$1,000	~7x

Values are estimated ranges based on recent auction results and marketplace data as of August 2026. Actual sale prices vary by timing, platform, and card condition.

The PSA 10 premium for Young Guns is one of the largest in any sport. A Crosby Young Guns PSA 10 can be 10-15x the PSA 9 price. This is because the PSA 10 population for star Young Guns is so low — the combination of centering difficulty, edge wear, and the age of older sets means that perfect copies are genuinely rare. This is why collectors are willing to buy multiple raw copies and submit them in hopes of finding one gem-mint candidate.

Pre-Screening Young Guns Before Submitting

Pre-screening is the most important step in the Young Guns grading process. At $79.99 per card for PSA Regular (the cheapest open PSA tier in August 2026), you cannot afford to submit cards that will grade PSA 9 or below. Here is the pre-screening protocol:

Step 1: Visual Inspection (5 minutes per card)

• Corners: Examine all four corners under 10x magnification. Look for dings, dents, and whitening. Even one damaged corner drops the card to PSA 8 or below.
• Edges: Check all four edges for chipping, fraying, and whitening. Young Guns with dark borders show edge wear more visibly.
• Surface: Tilt the card under a light source to catch scratches, print lines, and dimples. Look for gloss imperfections.
• Centering: Measure the borders. Use a centering tool or app. The front must be 55/45 or better for PSA 10.

Step 2: AI Pre-Grading (30 seconds per card)

Use AI pre-grading to get an objective assessment. AI tools analyze a photo of your card and provide a predicted PSA grade with specific defect identification. For Young Guns, the most valuable AI check is centering — the tool measures the border ratios precisely and tells you whether the card meets the 55/45 standard. This catches centering issues that the naked eye misses, especially given the Young Guns logo optical illusion.

Step 3: The Go/No-Go Decision

• Go: Card passes all four criteria with no visible defects. Centering is 55/45 or better. Submit to PSA.
• Maybe: Card has one minor issue (borderline centering, slight edge wear). Submit to CGC Economy ($20) as a budget alternative, or hold for a future submission.
• No-Go: Card has visible damage or centering worse than 60/40. Do not submit. Sell raw or keep for personal collection.

Submission Strategy in the 2026 Backlog

The 2026 grading crisis affects Young Guns submissions just like every other card type. Here is how to navigate it:

For High-Value Young Guns (Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid)

Use PSA Regular ($79.99, 70-80 business days) or PSA Express ($149, 20-30 business days). These cards are worth thousands in PSA 10, so the fee is easily justified. The 70-80 day wait is long but acceptable for cards you plan to hold long-term.

For Mid-Value Young Guns (Matthews, Makar, Bedard, Celebrini)

Use PSA Regular ($79.99) for cards worth $500+ in PSA 10. For cards worth $100-$500, consider CGC Economy ($20, 90 working days) or CGC Standard ($55, 10 working days). The CGC resale discount is manageable for mid-value cards, and the cost savings is significant.

For Numbered Parallels

Always use PSA. The scarcity of numbered parallels means the PSA premium is largest relative to the fee. Use PSA Express ($149) for parallels worth $1,000+ and PSA Regular ($79.99) for parallels worth $200-$1,000.

For Common Young Guns (Non-Star Rookies)

Do not grade common Young Guns of non-star rookies. The PSA 10 value is typically $10-$50, which does not justify the $79.99 fee. Sell raw or keep for personal collection. If you have a large batch of 25+ common Young Guns, CGC Bulk ($17, 150 working days) is the only economical option.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources & Further Reading

• PreGradeCards — Hockey Card Grading Guide 2026
• SportCardScanner — Upper Deck Young Guns Values & Parallels
• CardSense AI — Connor McDavid Rookie Card Guide
• CardSense AI — Connor Bedard Rookie Card Guide
• CardSense AI — Upper Deck Young Guns Guide
• GradingMetric — Hockey Card Grading with AI

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