The Short Answer
- Connor Bedard's 2023-24 Upper Deck Young Guns #451 is the centerpiece of his card market — raw copies sell near $199, PSA 9s for $241-$275, and PSA 10s for $650-$3,500+.
- The Outburst Gold 1/1 carries a public $1 million bounty, making it one of the most chased modern hockey cards in existence.
- The PSA 10 premium is enormous — roughly 7-15x the raw value — because Young Guns are notoriously difficult to grade at PSA 10 due to centering issues and surface print lines.
- Over 18,000 Bedard Young Guns have been PSA graded, with more than 7,500 earning PSA 10 — meaning the population is deep but demand remains strong.
- Bedard's card values dipped during a slow sophomore start but have recovered in the 2025-26 season as his on-ice production returned to elite levels.
- Upper Deck holds the exclusive NHL license, so Young Guns is the only mainstream Bedard rookie card — no Topps or Panini competition fragments the market.
- Hockey cards remain 30-50% cheaper than comparable basketball and football rookies, making Bedard a relative value play among generational talents.
Connor Bedard: The Generational Talent
Connor Bedard entered the NHL as the most hyped hockey rookie of the modern era — a generational talent whose card market drew immediate comparisons to Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. Drafted first overall by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Bedard brought an unprecedented combination of elite puck handling, hockey IQ, and a release that scouts compared to the greatest goal-scorers in the game's history.
What makes Bedard particularly significant for card collectors is the market context. He arrived at a moment when hockey cards were beginning to close the value gap with basketball and football. The Macklin Celebrini Outburst Gold 1/1 sale for $1.28 million had just proven that modern hockey cards could command seven figures, and a new wave of collectors who had previously ignored the NHL were paying attention. Bedard became the focal point of that attention.
His rookie season delivered on the hype — Bedard won the Calder Trophy as NHL Rookie of the Year, leading all first-year players in goals and points despite missing time with a broken jaw. The sophomore season started slowly, and his card values dipped as impatient collectors declared him a 'bust' after a handful of games. But the 2025-26 season silenced the doubters: Bedard posted 22 points through his first 15 games, and his Young Guns PSA 10 climbed from a floor near $430 back above $650, with momentum building as the season progressed.
For collectors and investors, Bedard represents the defining modern hockey card story. His rookie cards span multiple Upper Deck products, with the Young Guns serving as the flagship and a deep parallel structure providing chase cards at every budget level. This guide covers every Bedard rookie card, current market values, grading considerations, and the long-term investment outlook.
2023-24 Upper Deck Young Guns #451: The Flagship Rookie Card
The 2023-24 Upper Deck Young Guns rookie card (#451) is the centerpiece of the Bedard card market. Young Guns is the most iconic NHL rookie card series — it is the card that most collectors associate with 'Bedard rookie card' and the one that drives the most secondary market activity. Since 1990-91, every major NHL rookie has had a Young Guns card, and Crosby's, Ovechkin's, and McDavid's Young Guns rookies are foundational pieces of the hobby.
Young Guns are short-printed within Upper Deck Series 1 and Series 2 at approximately 1:6 packs. For a star rookie like Bedard, the odds of pulling his specific Young Guns from a random pack are roughly 1:300 (50 rookies per series, 1:6 pack odds). This creates natural scarcity that supports prices, especially for graded PSA 10 copies.
The Bedard Young Guns appeared in 2023-24 Upper Deck Series 2, which created a unique dynamic: collectors had to wait for the second series release to chase the most anticipated rookie card of the class. This delayed supply meant that early demand concentrated on fewer available copies, supporting higher initial prices before the market normalized.
Why the Young Guns Is the Definitive Bedard RC
Upper Deck holds the exclusive NHLPA and NHL license, which means Young Guns is the only mainstream NHL rookie card. There is no competition from Topps, Panini, or other manufacturers. This monopoly on NHL rookie cards ensures that the Young Guns remains the definitive rookie card, with no fragmented market to dilute value. When collectors say 'Bedard rookie card,' they mean the Young Guns #451.
Bedard Young Guns Parallels Breakdown
Beyond the base Young Guns, Bedard has a full range of parallels that create a chase structure at multiple price points. Here is the complete breakdown:
| Parallel | Print Run | Raw NM Range | PSA 10 Range | Collector Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Guns Base #451 | Mass-produced | $199 | $650-$3,500+ | Flagship — every collector's anchor |
| Young Guns Canvas | Short print | $150-$300 | $400-$800 | Fan-favorite alternate art |
| Young Guns Exclusives /100 | /100 | $500-$1,200 | $1,000-$2,500 | Major premium parallel |
| Young Guns High Gloss /10 | /10 | $1,000-$3,000+ | $2,000-$5,000+ | Extremely rare chase |
| Young Guns Clear Cut 1/1 | 1/1 | $2,000-$4,000 | $2,067-$4,000+ | One-of-one trophy |
| Young Guns Outburst Gold 1/1 | 1/1 | $1M bounty | Holy Grail | The ultimate chase card |
The Outburst Gold 1/1 deserves special attention. A public $1 million bounty has been placed on this card, making it one of the most chased modern hockey cards in existence. The Celebrini Outburst Gold 1/1 sold for $1.28 million, validating that these 1/1 Young Guns parallels can command seven figures. If the Bedard Outburst Gold surfaces at auction, it could rival or exceed that figure given Bedard's larger collector base and Chicago market.
SP Authentic, The Cup & Premium Autograph Rookies
While the Young Guns is the flagship, Bedard's rookie portfolio extends into premium Upper Deck products that feature autographs and patch pieces. These are the trophy cards for high-end collectors:
2023-24 SP Authentic Future Watch Auto
The SP Authentic Future Watch autograph is the autograph trophy of the Bedard rookie class. Numbered to 999 copies, this on-card autograph is the card that high-end collectors target as the centerpiece of a Bedard PC. PSA 10 copies trade in five-figure territory, and the autograph itself is clean and on-card rather than a sticker auto. This is the card that most closely parallels the McDavid SP Authentic Future Watch Auto, which trades at $14,536 in PSA 10.
2023-24 Upper Deck The Cup RPA
The Cup is Upper Deck's ultra-premium product, and the Bedard Rookie Patch Autograph (RPA) from The Cup is the grail-tier card of his rookie class. Featuring a game-worn patch piece and an autograph, numbered to 99 or fewer, The Cup RPAs are the most valuable modern hockey cards outside of the 1/1 parallels. A Bedard The Cup RPA in PSA 10 would be a five-to-six-figure card depending on the patch quality and serial number.
Companion Rookies: OPC, Ice, Platinum, Canvas
For collectors building a complete Bedard rookie run at different budgets, Upper Deck's companion products offer additional rookie-year cards: O-Pee-Chee (OPC) provides a vintage-style rookie, Ice and Platinum offer parallel-heavy chrome-style treatments, and Canvas provides the fan-favorite alternate art. These companion cards are more affordable than the flagship Young Guns and allow collectors to build depth in a Bedard PC without chasing the premium autos.
Current 2026 Market Values by Grade
Bedard's card values have been volatile — characteristic of a young superstar whose on-ice performance directly drives market sentiment. Here is the current market snapshot for the flagship Young Guns #451 as of September 2026:
| Grade | Value Range | Volume | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw (Ungraded) | $199 | ~1 sale/day | Down 7.6% over 30 days (July 2026) |
| PSA 7 | $172 | ~1 sale/month | Below raw — not worth grading |
| PSA 8 | $194 | ~1 sale/week | Marginal — barely covers fees |
| PSA 9 | $249-$275 | ~1 sale/day | Modest premium over raw |
| PSA 9.5 | $375 | ~1 sale/week | Half-grade premium emerging |
| PSA 10 (Gem Mint) | $650-$3,500+ | ~1 sale/day | The investment-grade tier |
The PSA 10 premium is the defining feature of this market. A PSA 10 trades at roughly 7-15x the raw value, and the gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10 is where the real investment opportunity lies for condition-savvy collectors. Recent PSA 10 sales in August 2026 ranged from $648 to $718, with higher-end listings reaching $820-$900 on Fanatics Collect. The broader $1,500-$3,500+ range reflects peak demand periods and high-grade copy scarcity.
For the Clear Cut 1/1 parallel, PSA 10 sales have reached $4,000, with the price band generally ranging from $2,067 to $4,000 and recent prices around $2,868-$3,950. The Clear Cut has shown a steady upward trend since 2025, suggesting growing demand for the premium parallels.
Grading Challenges: Why PSA 10 Is Hard for Young Guns
The reason the PSA 10 premium is so enormous is that Young Guns cards are notoriously difficult to grade at Gem Mint. Upper Deck's mass-produced flagship product has several common condition issues that prevent clean copies from reaching PSA 10:
Centering Issues
Young Guns centering is notoriously variable. The mass-production process means that many cards come off-center — left/right or top/bottom ratios that fall outside PSA's 55/45 tolerance for a 10. This is the single most common reason a clean-looking Bedard Young Guns misses the 10. Pre-grading centering before submission is essential.
Edge Whitening on Dark Borders
Young Guns cards feature dark borders that show edge whitening prominently. Even minor handling wear that would be invisible on a white-bordered card becomes a visible deduction on Young Guns. Pack-fresh copies can have manufacturing edge wear that collectors miss with the naked eye.
Surface Print Lines
The foil surface treatments on Young Guns are prone to print lines and surface imperfections from the production process. These are often invisible under normal lighting but show up under the direct lighting that PSA graders use. A card that looks Gem Mint to a collector may have microscopic print lines that cap it at PSA 9.
This is exactly where AI pre-grading adds the most value. A pre-grade scan can detect centering ratios, edge whitening, and surface print lines before you pay a $79.99 PSA submission fee. If the AI pre-grade suggests the card is a PSA 9 candidate rather than a PSA 10, you can sell it raw and avoid the wasted submission cost — the difference between a profitable flip and a fee-draining mistake.
The Investment Thesis for Bedard Rookie Cards
The investment case for Connor Bedard rookie cards rests on five structural factors that differentiate hockey's most hyped rookie from comparable athletes in other sports:
Factor 1: The Generational Talent Premium
Bedard is not just a good rookie — he is widely regarded as a generational talent, the same label applied to McDavid and Crosby. Generational talents have sustained card demand that compounds over a full career, not just a rookie-year spike. Crosby's 2005-06 Young Guns PSA 10 still trades at premium levels two decades after his debut. Bedard's career is just beginning, and his cards have decades of demand runway.
Factor 2: The Chicago Market
Bedard plays for the Chicago Blackhawks, one of the NHL's largest and most passionate fan bases. Original Six markets drive deeper collector demand than small-market teams. The Blackhawks' national and international following means Bedard's cards have a broader buyer base than a comparable talent playing in a smaller market.
Factor 3: The Undervalued Hockey Market
Hockey cards remain 30-50% cheaper than comparable basketball and football cards. A PSA 10 Young Guns of a generational talent is significantly cheaper than a PSA 10 basketball or football rookie of the same caliber. The Celebrini $1.28M sale proved the gap is closing, which means buying hockey rookies now represents a value opportunity before the market re-rates.
Factor 4: Upper Deck's Exclusive License
Upper Deck holds the exclusive NHL license, which means Young Guns is the only mainstream NHL rookie card. There is no competition from Topps, Panini, or other manufacturers. This monopoly ensures that Bedard's Young Guns remains the definitive rookie card, with no fragmented market to dilute value — unlike basketball and football, where multiple manufacturers split rookie card demand.
Factor 5: The Canadian Collector Base
Hockey is Canada's cultural sport, and the Canadian collector base is structurally engaged. This provides a floor of demand that does not exist for other sports in the same way. Bedard, as a Canadian player, benefits from this base more than an international prospect would.
Buying Strategy: When and How to Acquire
For collectors and investors looking to build a position in Bedard rookie cards, the strategy depends on budget and risk tolerance:
Budget Tier ($200-$500)
Buy a raw Young Guns in the best condition you can find. Look for strong centering, sharp corners, and clean surfaces. Use AI pre-grading to screen the card before submitting to PSA — a PSA 10 multiplies value 7-15x. This is the highest-ROI play but requires condition-savvy buying and the patience to wait for PSA turnaround.
Mid-Range Tier ($500-$2,000)
Target a PSA 9 Young Guns as a realistic anchor, or chase the Canvas parallel in PSA 10. The PSA 9 provides liquidity and a guaranteed grade without the PSA 10 premium. The Canvas PSA 10 is a value parallel that offers the Gem Mint premium at a lower entry point than the base Young Guns PSA 10.
High-End Tier ($2,000-$10,000+)
Target a PSA 10 Young Guns as the foundation, then add the Exclusives /100 or High Gloss /10 as chase cards. For trophy collectors, the SP Authentic Future Watch Auto in PSA 9 or 10 is the autograph centerpiece. Treat all Bedard purchases as long-term holds — his career is just starting, and NHL card investing is a long game.
The best buying windows are the offseason and during temporary slumps. Bedard's values dipped during his slow sophomore start and recovered during his strong 2025-26 performance. Buying during the dips — when impatient collectors are selling — is the highest-ROI approach for a player whose long-term trajectory is elite.
Risk Factors: What Could Go Wrong
No card investment is risk-free, and Bedard carries several risks that collectors should weigh:
- Injury risk: Bedard already suffered a broken jaw during his rookie season. Hockey is a physical sport, and a career-altering injury could suppress card values for years. This is the single largest risk to any hockey card investment.
- Performance volatility: Young players have inconsistent seasons. Bedard's sophomore slump triggered a wave of 'bust' narratives and a card value dip. If a future slump is longer or deeper, values could decline further before recovering.
- Population depth: Over 18,000 Bedard Young Guns have been PSA graded, with 7,500+ PSA 10s. This deep population means the PSA 10 is not rare in absolute terms — its value depends entirely on sustained demand outpacing the available supply.
- Market cyclicality: The sports card market is cyclical. A broader hobby downturn would affect Bedard along with every other player. Hockey cards are less liquid than basketball or football, so exits during a downturn may require accepting larger discounts.
- Team performance: The Blackhawks' rebuild affects Bedard's national visibility. Deep playoff runs drive card demand; missing the playoffs suppresses it. A competitive Chicago team would be a tailwind for Bedard's card values.
Long-Term Outlook: 2027-2030
The long-term outlook for Bedard rookie cards is bullish, contingent on health and continued elite performance. The roadmap is clear: Crosby and McDavid's Young Guns PSA 10 values ($5,000-$80,000+ for Crosby, $3,000-$8,000+ for McDavid) represent the ceiling for a generational talent's flagship rookie. Bedard's PSA 10 at $650-$3,500+ is trading at a significant discount to both, despite comparable talent and a larger Original Six market.
If Bedard delivers a Hart Trophy-caliber season and the Blackhawks return to playoff contention, his Young Guns PSA 10 has a realistic path to the $3,000-$8,000 range that McDavid's occupies. The Exclusives /100 and High Gloss /10 would scale proportionally, and the SP Authentic Future Watch Auto would enter five-figure territory consistently.
The Outburst Gold 1/1 remains the ultimate wildcard. If it surfaces at auction during a peak Bedard moment — a playoff run, a scoring title, a Hart Trophy — the $1 million bounty could be claimed, and the sale would lift the entire Bedard card market the way the Celebrini sale lifted the broader hockey card market.
For collectors with patience, Bedard's rookie cards offer a rare combination: a generational talent, an exclusive-license flagship rookie card, an undervalued sport, and a deep parallel structure. The risk is real, but the upside is the kind that defines a collection for decades.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Sources & Further Reading
- Card Ladder — 2023 Upper Deck Connor Bedard Young Guns #451 PSA 10 sales data
- SportsCardsPro — Connor Bedard #451 price history and grade values
- CardHedger — Bedard Young Guns Clear Cut 1/1 price trends
- The Hockey News — Bedard card market recovery analysis (2025-26 season)
- Fanatics Collect — Bedard Young Guns PSA 10 active listings
Emily Rodriguez analyzes grading cost, population, and pricing data across PSA, BGS, SGC, CGC, and TAG. She built the PreGradeCards ROI calculator and submission planner, and her market reports on grading backlog, turnaround times, and slab premiums are cited by collectors and dealers worldwide.
With submission floors rising, pre-screening is no longer optional. Use our AI Pre-Grade Calculator to score a card's PSA 10 odds before you pay, and the Submission Planner to pick the right tier.